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Innovation occurs because we have two balanced and intertwined examples of Moore's Law: The silicon companies, like Intel and AMD, release a new generation of chips; this fuels growth in software innovation but this will run out of steam without the chip manufacturers behaving according to Moores Law. Equally, if software developers didn't sufficiently innovate, the chip makers wouldn't have the demand for new machines, etc., so they would ultimately have little option but to reduce efforts to innovate Ergo - Two closely coupled cycles. If Microsoft, for example, behaved like BT, Deutsche Telekom, et al, then Intel and AMD would ultimately wither, and in turn Microsoft will suffer for lack of processing grunt and features. But these two industries know this, and they respect each other enough to ensure a seamless spiral, fulfilling Moore's prophecy.
Broadband has now entered the same cycle and needs to become a complimentary biorhythm in this phasing of Moore's Law - each cycle directly impacting the behaviour of the others. Just as chip makers would suffer if the software industry decided that they had created every application anyone could want, software innovation will decline as a result of the broadband market not investing and innovating. But are the broadband operators respecting the cycle - or are the blissfully unaware of their duty?
When 512 kbps was first released, we saw a rush of new applications (Skype, etc) but these announcements are tailing off - they are at the end of their supportable cycle with the current broadband offerings, just as Gordon Moore, himself, would no doubt have predicted 40 years ago. If this is allowed to continue, and software innovation is allowed to slow further, demand for next generation chips will decline ultimately impacting investment in next generation silicon.
If the software and chip industries stall as a result of incumbent operator intransigence, no doubt BT and their ilk will point to the lack of new applications as proof that there is no need for next generation broadband - when it is very clearly a self-fulfilling prophecy, fuelled by their inaction. Innovation in knowledge economies will falter unless these three elements of innovation behave naturally in harmony, pushing each other; yet incumbent operators across Europe are already failing to deliver on their responsibility after just one cycle.
If Microsoft failed to deliver the goods, the OpenSource community would step in, and they do an excellent job of keeping up the pressure. If BT failed to deliver, its falls to people like CBN to step up to the mark; but this is a very different market. The OpenSource community can produce the next greatest software innovation on a £200 PC and it can revolutionise the world - CBN would need to invest billions to achieve the same impact. But community broadband can keep up the pressure with their own grassroots innovation, becoming the true pioneers - if BT doesn't follow, people will know that it wasn't for lack of innovation and possibilities in the marketplace. If innovation stalls, it can only be the fault of the incumbents. Thoughts from Adrian Wooster, principle consultant at GTC |
